The Numbers Don’t Lie
Grocery-anchored retail is having a moment — and the data backs it up. Transaction volume in the space jumped 42% in 2025, outpacing nearly every other commercial real estate sector. Capital is coming back, supply is near historic lows, and anchor grocers are seeing double-digit visit growth.
For years, the narrative around retail real estate was dominated by headlines about e-commerce disruption and store closures. But grocery-anchored centers have quietly proven themselves as one of the most resilient asset classes in commercial real estate.
Why Grocery-Anchored Centers Outperform
The fundamental advantage is simple: people need to eat, and most prefer to buy fresh food in person. But the outperformance goes deeper than that:
- Traffic generation: A grocery anchor drives consistent, repeat foot traffic — typically 2-3 visits per week per household. That traffic benefits every tenant in the center.
- E-commerce resistance: Online grocery penetration remains below 15%, compared to 30%+ for general merchandise. The in-store experience for fresh produce, meat, and bakery items is difficult to replicate digitally.
- Tenant stability: Grocery leases are typically 15-20 years with options, providing predictable cash flow that investors prize in uncertain markets.
- Supply constraints: New grocery-anchored development has been limited for years due to construction costs, entitlement timelines, and grocer selectivity. Existing well-located centers benefit from this scarcity.
What Makes a Good Grocery-Anchored Investment?
Not all grocery-anchored centers are created equal. The key factors that separate strong performers from the rest include:
- Trade area demographics: Population density, household income, and growth trends within a 3-5 mile radius.
- Anchor credit quality: The financial strength of the grocery tenant matters. Kroger, Publix, and Aldi represent different risk profiles.
- Inline tenant mix: The best centers complement the grocer with service-oriented tenants — medical, dental, fitness, restaurants — that are themselves resistant to e-commerce pressure.
- Below-market rents: Centers where inline rents have room to grow on renewal offer embedded upside.
Local Perspective
In Central Kentucky, the grocery landscape is evolving. Publix’s recent entry into the Elizabethtown market represents a significant vote of confidence in the region’s growth trajectory. For investors and developers, the key question is where the next anchor-driven development opportunities will emerge — and which existing centers are positioned for rent growth as demand outpaces supply.
Understanding these dynamics is essential for anyone evaluating retail real estate opportunities in today’s market.
Action Advisors tracks retail and commercial opportunities across Central Kentucky. See our market coverage or reach out to discuss opportunities.
Looking for commercial real estate opportunities in Kentucky?